Election years are often marked out by increasingly outlandish policy pronouncements, as politicians and thinktankers set out their stalls and lay traps for their opponents.
These days, for UK higher education, that might sound par for the course – universities have got used to being treated as political pincushions rather than as assets to be nurtured.
But there is always scope for further ratcheting up, and the risk ahead of an election that the government looks almost certain to lose is that the political traps will take centre stage.
This is the backdrop to the hardening of Conservative lines against universities in recent weeks.
In a report last week, right-leaning thinktank Onward proposed radical restructuring of the national university system, as part of a plan to end the UK’s “economic malaise”.
Among its ideas was that only the highest-performing universities (measured by Ucas tariff) should be allowed to sponsor international students and receive public subsidies for all their courses, with the majority of institutions “repurposed” to offer technical training.
The authors included Nick Timothy, a former Theresa May adviser whose views on higher education have been well rehearsed, but what added credibility to the paper was its endorsement by Conservative heavyweight and former education secretary Michael Gove.
Of particular note in this broadside is the fire aimed at international students, the latest barrage in an ongoing battle that, in essence, pitches a cohort of students who underwrite the financial viability of the country’s universities against the alternative view of them as the principal contributor to net migration numbers that are spiralling out of control.
The latter view, and the political capital in addressing it, was evident last week in the trumpeting of new data showing a 25 per cent fall in study visas issued in the first three months of the year, mainly because of restrictions on students bringing family members with them.
This ideological tug of war will come to a head in the coming weeks, with the highly anticipated release of the Migration Advisory Committee report on the graduate visa route, due on 14 May.
A point of contention is the extent to which the visa route is being exploited to secure back-door entry for low-skilled labour, rather than talented students seeking high-quality education.
Setting out the terms of reference for the review in March, home secretary James Cleverly asked the review to consider whether the visa route was “undermining the integrity and quality of the UK higher education system”, signalling the government’s thinking on the issue.
The expectation would be that Conservative strategists will seek to leverage any findings that support this thesis, building on the ideas set out in the Onward report.
A key question, then, is what Labour – likely to be in government this time next year – will do in response to any significant moves to crack down on graduate visas, which have the potential to significantly deepen the financial crisis gripping the higher education sector.
One option would be to say nothing. This would be in line with the idea that at this point, far ahead in the polls, Labour’s best electoral strategy is to behave as if it is carrying a priceless vase over a polished floor wearing only socks – that is, walk very slowly, very carefully, and do absolutely nothing that could risk slipping up.
The downside of this approach is that the incoming government could face inheriting a higher education sector that is in an even sorrier financial state than at present.
Option two would be to say that a serious crackdown on the graduate visa route would be reversed by Labour once it was in power – but that, the argument goes, would be to fall into the trap that is being set, allowing the Conservatives to cast Labour as weak on immigration.
Given such a choice, and given how little the party has had to say about higher education and how it would address the structural issues that are steadily crippling one of the country’s few world-class sectors, which will look most attractive to a Labour party tiptoeing its way to Number 10 with vase in hand?